TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8AM-8:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$952

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8AM-8:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8AM-8:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 8:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8AM-8:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$211
$952
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T12:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T12:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified time window. You'll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the trading volume of $952 over the past 24 hours and total volume of $952. The dashboard also displays a price history chart reflecting how the market has priced the outcome over time, giving you insight into trader sentiment. This allows you to quickly assess the current state of the market and how it’s evolving.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. If analysts are largely bullish on gold, but this market shows a more cautious outlook, it could indicate that traders perceive unquantifiable risks or anticipate unforeseen events that aren't fully captured in standard financial models. It's a valuable comparison point for a more holistic view.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a real-time forecast of the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:00 AM and 8:15 AM Eastern Time on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 8:15 AM than at 8:00 AM, the 'up' outcome will win; if it’s lower, the 'down' outcome will win. The precise price data will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements from central banks, can also drive substantial market movements. Even shifts in investor sentiment, triggered by news headlines or analyst commentary, could lead to changes in trading activity and, consequently, the odds in this market. Monitoring these developments will be key to understanding potential shifts in the forecast.