TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$401

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 8:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$401
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T00:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T00:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You'll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned to each outcome by traders. It also displays the total volume traded in this market, currently at $401, and the 24-hour volume, which is $401. This allows you to quickly gauge market interest and how sentiment is shifting as we approach the event's conclusion.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Predict. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which may be based on economic models or fundamental analysis. While analysts may predict a specific direction for gold, this market represents a real-money view of what's most likely to happen. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and are directly influenced by participants’ willingness to put capital behind their beliefs. This dynamic can provide a unique perspective beyond standard financial predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price increasing, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of an upward movement. This creates a dynamic pricing system driven by informed speculation.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:15 PM and 8:30 PM Eastern Time on October 22nd. Specifically, the market will determine whether the price increased or decreased during that 15-minute window. The final price movement will be verified against reliable financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent outcome for all participants.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or political instability, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any major announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger price movements. Shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in global risk appetite are also key indicators to watch, as they frequently correlate with gold price fluctuations.