TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 7:45PM-8PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$223

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 7:45PM-8PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 7:45PM-8PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 8:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 7:45PM-8PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$223
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T23:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T23:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $221, and the total market volume, which is $223. This provides a clear picture of trader sentiment and activity surrounding the potential direction of the gold price. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading action.

Currently, the collective prediction on Predict offers a unique perspective when contrasted with traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many financial analysts offer predictions about gold’s price trajectory, this market represents the aggregated wisdom of a diverse group of traders. Often, prediction market odds can provide an earlier signal of changing expectations than traditional surveys or reports, as traders directly put capital behind their beliefs. It’s a real-time assessment of probability, distinct from published opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. As more traders buy the 'up' contract, its price increases, reflecting higher confidence in a price increase. Conversely, increased selling pressure on the 'up' contract lowers its price. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. This dynamic pricing ensures the odds reflect the latest information and collective intelligence.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:45 PM ET and 8:00 PM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 8:00 PM ET than it was at 7:45 PM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Otherwise, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating international tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations set by central banks, or significant currency fluctuations, could all influence trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market. Any surprise announcements from major gold-producing countries could also have an effect.