TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

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$333,432,169

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2,984,640,614

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$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

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4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,367

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 7:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$186
$2,367
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T11:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T11:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $2,362. The total volume traded on this market is $2,367. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different outcomes, and helps you understand market sentiment around short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market’s participants are weighing various factors, including recent economic data and Federal Reserve policy. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and analyst opinions, as markets aggregate diverse viewpoints and react quickly to new information, potentially offering a more nuanced view than individual expert predictions. This difference highlights the wisdom of the crowd effect in action.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:30 AM and 7:45 AM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 7:45 AM ET than at 7:30 AM ET, the ‘up’ outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the ‘down’ outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected policy changes from major economies, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy could impact the dollar’s strength and, consequently, the price of gold. Any surprise announcements related to central bank gold reserves could also trigger substantial price movements.