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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,765

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 7:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$226
$1,765
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T11:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T11:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probability of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,779. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and track changes in expectations. Total volume for this market is $1,765, indicating overall interest from traders.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend in gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market shows a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on specific models and assumptions, whereas this market represents the collective wisdom of many individual traders. This allows for a dynamic assessment of probabilities that may differ from static expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds shift as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions, creating a real-time probability assessment of the event’s outcome. The market efficiently incorporates diverse viewpoints and expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:15 AM ET and 7:30 AM ET on October 22nd. A verified price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a price decrease or no change will favor those who predicted 'Down'. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data feeds.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, are also key drivers. Furthermore, any significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in interest rate expectations could move this market. Traders will be closely monitoring these signals, and the market will react quickly to any new information that alters the perceived probability of gold increasing or decreasing in value.