TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 6:45PM-7PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$464

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 6:45PM-7PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 6:45PM-7PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 7:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 6:45PM-7PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$464
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T22:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T22:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart visualizing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $454, and the total volume traded to date, which is $464. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves on this question.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold’s future performance, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouths are. This can lead to divergence, as prediction market participants may weigh factors differently or have access to unique information. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially offering a more dynamic view than static analyst reports. Comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. As more traders buy contracts predicting an increase, the price of those contracts rises, and vice-versa. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This creates a dynamic price that reflects the collective probability assigned to each outcome. The current price effectively represents the market's forecast for the likelihood of gold increasing in value by the specified time.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 6:45 PM ET and 7:00 PM ET on October 22nd. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'up,' while a decrease or no change will result in a payout for those who predicted 'down.' The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data and verified for accuracy.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected conflicts or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant movements in the US dollar or unexpected announcements from major gold-producing countries could also influence trading activity in this market. Any news that affects investor risk appetite could lead to substantial shifts in the odds.