TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

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2,984,640,614

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$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

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4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$418

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 6:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
Volume
24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$77
$418
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T10:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T10:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of probabilities, along with the total volume traded – currently $418 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $418. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and participation. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, showing how the implied probabilities have shifted over time, providing insights into how the market is reacting to news and information.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are providing price targets and directional guidance for gold, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to unique information. It's common to see this market diverge from consensus estimates, particularly when anticipating short-term price fluctuations, as traders react rapidly to breaking news and evolving sentiment.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds reflect the aggregated expectations of all participants, creating a real-time assessment of probability. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts will climb, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:15 AM ET and 6:30 AM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 6:30 AM ET than at 6:15 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will prevail. The determination will rely on publicly available data from established financial sources.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 22, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or shifts in global trade relations, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant news related to major gold-holding countries or large institutional investors could trigger price movements and, consequently, shifts in this market.