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419,492

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:45PM-6PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$3

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:45PM-6PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:45PM-6PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 6:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:45PM-6PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T21:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T21:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $3, and the total volume traded to date, which is $3. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting continued volatility in precious metals, this market provides a real-time assessment of what traders believe will happen with the gold price. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s valuable to consider both perspectives when forming your own opinion on the future direction of gold, and this market offers a unique data point beyond standard expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a simple supply and demand mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy 'up' contracts, the price of those contracts increases, and the implied probability of gold rising also increases. Conversely, increased selling pressure on 'up' contracts lowers their price and the perceived chance of an increase. The prices reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd participating in this market.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 5:45PM-6:00PM ET window on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 6:00PM ET than at 5:45PM ET, the 'up' outcome will win. If the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will win. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 22, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, can also drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, significant movements in the US dollar or changes in global risk appetite could trigger shifts in trading activity within this market. Keep an eye on these signals as they unfold.