TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$10

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 5:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T21:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T21:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart illustrating how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also see the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $10, and the total volume traded to date, which is $10. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of the gold price leading up to the event. The dashboard is designed to give you a quick understanding of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for gold's price movement, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream financial analysis, offering a potentially leading indicator of market expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome occurring. Higher prices suggest greater confidence in that outcome, while lower prices indicate less certainty. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:30 PM ET and 5:45 PM ET on October 22nd. A positive change indicates the price moved upward, while a negative change indicates a downward movement. The final price change will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive price fluctuations. Additionally, changes in investor sentiment, influenced by news headlines or analyst commentary, can lead to shifts in trading activity within this market. Any surprise announcements regarding gold reserves held by major central banks could also create volatility.