TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$10

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 5:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T21:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T21:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart visualizing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $10, and the total overall volume for this market, which is $10. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price action of gold. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for gold’s price movement, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market incorporate information faster than traditional forecasts, as traders react quickly to news and events. Comparing the two can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the aggregated probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will increase, the higher the price of the 'up' contract will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:15 PM ET and 5:30 PM ET on October 22nd. If the price increases during that timeframe, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. The exact price change will be verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, could impact this market. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing countries or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also play a role.