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420,368

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$946

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 5:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$212
$946
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T09:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T09:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You'll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with a price history chart illustrating how the market has fluctuated. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $942, and the total market volume, which stands at $946. This provides a comprehensive overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific prediction.

Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts for gold price movements vary considerably. Some analysts predict a slight increase due to geopolitical instability, while others anticipate a decrease based on anticipated interest rate hikes. These forecasts are often based on complex models and subjective interpretations of economic data. This market, however, represents the collective prediction of a diverse group of traders, offering a different perspective based on real-time information and market dynamics. Comparing the two can reveal interesting insights into differing expectations regarding the future price of gold.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that traders assign to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of an upward price movement. This dynamic pricing allows for a constantly updated assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 5:15 AM and 5:30 AM Eastern Time on October 22nd. A verified increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a decrease or no change will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Down'. The precise price data will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any announcements regarding monetary policy from central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, could trigger substantial price movements. Shifts in investor sentiment and major purchases or sales by large institutional investors are also potential catalysts that could move this market.