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410,482

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4PM-4:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$503

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4PM-4:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4PM-4:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 4:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4PM-4:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$202
$503
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T20:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T20:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4PM and 4:15PM ET on October 22nd. You can view the current odds, historical price action of these predictions, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $502. The total volume for this market is $503. This information allows traders to gauge market sentiment and make informed decisions about their predictions.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market outcomes are distinct from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of traders on Predict. The odds reflect what traders believe is the probability of an upward or downward price movement, offering a different perspective than a single analyst’s opinion. Comparing this market to polls or expert predictions can reveal whether the crowd anticipates a different outcome than conventional wisdom suggests.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price increasing, with traders adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis of market conditions. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects real-time sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4PM and 4:15PM ET on October 22nd. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. The exact price change will be verified against reliable financial data sources to determine the final result of this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or major political announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant news regarding central bank policies, particularly those related to interest rates, could trigger price movements. Traders will be closely monitoring these and other relevant signals to adjust their positions in this market.