TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.2b

24H VOL:

$192,072,993

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,842,388,377

408,027

Markets across

40,419

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4AM-4:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,023

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4AM-4:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4AM-4:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 4:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4AM-4:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$209
$1,023
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T08:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T08:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with the total volume traded—currently $1,023—and the 24-hour volume, which is $1,015. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how actively traders are participating. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, providing insights into evolving expectations.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders on Predict offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are predicting a continued upward trend, this market reflects a more nuanced view, with a significant portion of traders anticipating a potential price decrease. This divergence highlights the value of prediction markets in aggregating diverse opinions and identifying potential blind spots in conventional analysis. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on fundamental analysis, while this market incorporates both fundamental and speculative factors.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will increase, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the aggregated judgment of all participants, offering a forward-looking indicator of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:00 AM and 4:15 AM Eastern Time on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 4:15 AM than at 4:00 AM, the 'up' outcome will be declared the winner. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive safe-haven demand for gold. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched by investors. Any surprise announcements or shifts in market sentiment related to these events could lead to substantial movements in the odds within this market.