TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$238,896,186

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,934,485

408,127

Markets across

39,552

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,429

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,710

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 4:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$298
$2,710
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T20:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T20:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart visualizing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,686, and the total volume traded to date, which is $2,710. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of how traders are anticipating the price of gold will behave leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting continued volatility in precious metals, this market reflects the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the wisdom of the crowd, as represented by the odds on Predict. This difference can stem from varying interpretations of economic data, geopolitical events, or simply differing risk appetites among traders and analysts.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:30 PM ET and 4:45 PM ET on October 22nd. If the price increases during that 15-minute window, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political developments or escalating international tensions, can also drive investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in global risk sentiment could influence trading activity in this market. Unexpected news regarding major gold-producing nations could also play a role.