TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,312

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 4:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$209
$1,312
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T08:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T08:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4:15AM and 4:30AM ET on October 22nd. You'll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned by traders, along with the total volume traded—currently $1,312—and the 24-hour volume, which is $1,315. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how actively traders are participating in this specific prediction.

Currently, it's important to note that this market’s predictions are based solely on the collective intelligence of traders on Predict. Comparing these odds to external analyst forecasts reveals how traders weigh different factors influencing the gold price. If analysts generally predict a price increase, but this market shows a higher probability of a decrease, it suggests traders may be incorporating information or perspectives not fully reflected in traditional analysis. This difference can highlight potential blind spots in either approach.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down within the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts, and vice-versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether the gold price, as reported by a major financial data provider, moved up or down between 4:15AM and 4:30AM ET on October 22nd. The direction of the price change will determine which outcome is considered correct, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to those who correctly predicted the movement.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, major announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy, like interest rate changes, could trigger substantial price movements and, consequently, shifts in the odds within this market.