TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:45AM-4AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$559

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:45AM-4AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:45AM-4AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 4:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:45AM-4AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$211
$559
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T07:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T07:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $558. The total volume traded to date is $559. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this specific market.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders betting with real capital. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream analyst opinions, offering a unique signal for potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the market price converges towards what is considered the most likely outcome, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the 3:45AM-4:00AM ET window on October 22nd. If the price is higher than its starting value at 3:45AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often trigger gold price fluctuations. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, shifts in interest rate expectations or changes in the US dollar’s strength could play a role. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential movements in this market.