TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$669

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 3:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$208
$669
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T19:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T19:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value by the specified time. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $668. The total volume traded to date is $669. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how it’s evolving as the event approaches.

Currently, prediction markets often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for gold’s price movement, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of opinions and potential scenarios. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when significant uncertainty surrounds the event. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market confidence and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to a specific outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of that outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market remains responsive to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:30 PM ET and 3:45 PM ET on October 22nd. The exact price change will be verified against credible public sources to determine whether the market correctly predicted an upward or downward movement. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and their winnings or losses shortly after the resolution time.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global tensions or major political announcements, can also drive volatility. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy or interest rate changes are closely watched by investors. Any news that alters the perceived risk appetite or economic outlook could lead to substantial shifts in trading activity and, consequently, the odds in this market.