TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

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$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

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5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,705

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 3:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$22
$1,705
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T19:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T19:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,699, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,705. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of gold prices leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend in gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market shows a more nuanced view, with traders assigning probabilities to both potential outcomes. It's common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions and allow participants to update their beliefs based on new information, unlike static analyst reports. This dynamic interaction can provide a valuable signal beyond conventional financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of gold increasing in value is reflected in the price of the 'Up' contracts, while the 'Down' contracts represent the probability of a price decrease. This allows for a dynamic and liquid market for expressing views on gold's future movement.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:15 PM ET and 3:30 PM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 3:30 PM ET than at 3:15 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy changes, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could impact the gold price. Shifts in the US dollar's strength or changes in global risk appetite are also key factors to watch that could affect trading activity in this market.