TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

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2,984,640,614

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$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

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4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2PM-2:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,156

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2PM-2:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2PM-2:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 2:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2PM-2:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$1,156
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T18:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T18:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 2PM and 2:15PM ET on October 22nd. You'll find a visual representation of the probabilities assigned to each outcome by traders, along with a price history chart showing how the odds have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,155, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,156. This provides a snapshot of market activity and sentiment.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. If a significant difference emerges between this market’s implied probability and the consensus of financial analysts regarding gold’s short-term price trajectory, it could indicate disagreement about the factors driving the market or differing levels of confidence in the forecasts.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving expectations of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities as events unfold, offering a real-time assessment of potential gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 2:00 PM ET and 2:15 PM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 2:15 PM ET than at 2:00 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could trigger a response in the gold market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in trading activity within this market.