TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:45PM-3PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,204

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:45PM-3PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:45PM-3PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 3:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:45PM-3PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$211
$2,204
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T18:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T18:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 2:45 PM and 3:00 PM ET on October 22nd. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how predictions have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $2,201, and the total volume traded to date, which is $2,204. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of factors and potentially reacting more quickly to new information. Comparing this market to polls or analyst expectations reveals whether traders anticipate a different outcome than experts predict, offering a unique perspective on potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts reflects the level of uncertainty among traders, and the volume indicates the strength of conviction behind each prediction. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 2:45 PM and 3:00 PM ET on October 22nd. If the price increases during that timeframe, the 'up' contracts will pay out; if it decreases, the 'down' contracts will pay out. The exact price change will be verified against trusted financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global political stability or major international news, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger a reaction in the gold market, causing shifts in the odds reflected in this market. Monitoring these events will be key to understanding potential price movements.