TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:45AM-3AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$831

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:45AM-3AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:45AM-3AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 3:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 2:45AM-3AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$372
$831
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T06:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T06:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $827, and the total volume traded to date, which is $831. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of gold prices leading up to the resolution date. The dashboard allows you to see which outcome is currently favored by the crowd.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments than slower-moving analyst reports. This market provides a unique signal, potentially identifying overlooked factors influencing gold prices.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and changes as new information becomes available. Trading volume and order flow directly influence the odds displayed on the dashboard.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 2:45AM-3:00AM ET window on October 22nd. If the price increases during that timeframe, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains flat, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices as they influence expectations for interest rate policy. Geopolitical events, including unexpected conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy or quantitative easing could trigger substantial price movements and, consequently, shifts in this market’s odds.