TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1PM-1:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,148

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1PM-1:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1PM-1:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 1:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1PM-1:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$121
$2,148
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T17:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T17:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1PM and 1:15PM ET on October 22nd. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,151, and the total group volume, which is $2,148. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating in this market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are offering predictions about gold’s short-term movements, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouths are. It’s common to see discrepancies, as analysts may be influenced by biases or long-term economic models, whereas this market focuses on a very specific, short-term price action. Comparing this market to those forecasts can reveal interesting insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price increasing, with the remaining probability assigned to a price decrease. This dynamic pricing ensures the market stays responsive to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1PM and 1:15PM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 1:15PM ET than at 1PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will win. The precise price data used for verification will come from established financial data sources.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, can also drive volatility. Even comments from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could trigger a response. Additionally, significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in investor risk appetite could move this market. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential price movements.