TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1AM-1:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$798

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1AM-1:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1AM-1:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 1:15 AM EST

predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1AM-1:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$209
$798
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T05:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T05:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1:00 AM and 1:15 AM ET on October 22nd. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $798, and the 24-hour volume, which is $798. This allows you to see how traders are reacting to news and information as the event approaches.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders on Predict. These odds are often compared to traditional analyst forecasts, polls, and expert opinions regarding gold price fluctuations. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets incentivize accurate forecasting through financial reward, potentially capturing information and insights that may not be fully reflected in conventional analyses. Examining these differences can offer a unique perspective on market sentiment and potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether the gold price, as reported by a leading financial data provider, moves up or down between 1:00 AM and 1:15 AM ET on October 22nd. The final price movement will be assessed against established benchmarks to determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact trading activity in this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, major news related to gold mining production, central bank gold reserves, or currency fluctuations could all contribute to price volatility and shifts in the odds.