TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:45PM-2PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,093

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:45PM-2PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:45PM-2PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 2:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:45PM-2PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$207
$2,093
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T17:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T17:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value. You’ll find a price chart reflecting trading activity, along with the total volume traded of $2,093 and the 24-hour volume of $2,086. This allows you to see how confidence in each outcome is shifting in real-time. The dashboard also shows the current best available price for buying or selling shares in either outcome, offering a clear view of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for gold price movement, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the potential outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information more quickly than analyst reports, especially in response to breaking news or unexpected events. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of ‘up’ shares will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:45 PM ET and 2:00 PM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 2:00 PM ET than at 1:45 PM ET, the ‘up’ outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘down’ outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely-recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy changes, can also drive significant movement. Furthermore, shifts in interest rate expectations or the strength of the US dollar can have a substantial effect. Any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant changes in investor sentiment could also cause considerable volatility in this market.