TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:45AM-2AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,790

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:45AM-2AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:45AM-2AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 2:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:45AM-2AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$212
$1,790
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T05:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T05:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,792, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,790. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of the gold price. The dashboard is updated continuously to reflect the latest market activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are predicting a continued rise in gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainty, this market’s traders may be factoring in other variables, such as interest rate policies or unexpected economic data. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many individuals, while analyst forecasts typically represent the opinion of a single firm or expert. This difference in approach can make this market a valuable source of alternative insights.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified timeframe – from 1:45 AM to 2:00 AM Eastern Time on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 2:00 AM than at 1:45 AM, the 'up' outcome wins; if it’s lower, the 'down' outcome wins. The exact price source will be a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected announcements regarding interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, major geopolitical events (like escalating conflicts or diplomatic breakthroughs), and surprising economic data releases (such as inflation reports or employment numbers) are all potential catalysts. A sudden shift in investor risk appetite, driven by broader market trends, could also impact the gold price and, consequently, the trading activity in this market. Any news that alters perceptions of economic stability or safe-haven demand for gold is likely to be influential.