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410,482

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,078

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 1:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$204
$1,078
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T17:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T17:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1:30PM and 1:45PM ET on October 22nd. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,070. The total volume for this market is $1,078, reflecting the overall interest from traders. This information helps you understand where the crowd stands on the potential direction of gold.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. If analysts are largely predicting gold will go up, we might see higher probabilities assigned to that outcome here, but discrepancies can arise based on factors not fully captured in conventional analysis. Examining both sources provides a more comprehensive view of potential price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective sentiment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the resolution time, the more the price will likely move as new information becomes available and traders refine their predictions. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of the probability of each outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the price of gold moved up or down between 1:30PM and 1:45PM ET on October 22nd, as reported by a widely recognized financial data source. The exact price change isn’t specified in the market; the outcome is simply a binary determination of upward or downward movement during that 15-minute window.

Several signals could significantly move this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected crises, frequently drive investors toward safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, any major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could influence trader sentiment. Finally, large institutional investments or trading activity in gold futures could also cause notable shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.