TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$980

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 1:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$221
$980
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T05:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T05:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the implied probability of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 1:30AM and 1:45AM ET on October 22nd. You'll find a real-time display of the current odds, a price history chart showing how predictions have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $967. The total volume for this market is $980, reflecting overall trader interest. This information helps you understand where the crowd stands on the direction of gold.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide price targets for gold, this market represents a collective judgment about a very specific, short-term price movement. It’s common to see discrepancies, as analysts may focus on longer-term fundamentals while this market focuses on the probability of a move within a 15-minute window. The wisdom of the crowd in this market can sometimes anticipate short-term shifts before they are reflected in broader analyst consensus.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently incorporates new information as traders react to news and events, constantly adjusting their positions. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of expectations for the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the gold price, as reported by a major financial data provider, is higher or lower at 1:45AM ET on October 22nd compared to its value at 1:30AM ET. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the direction of the price movement. Traders should monitor reliable financial news sources as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements from central banks, can also create volatility. Even surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or large institutional investors could influence trader sentiment. Any unforeseen disruption to global financial markets could also cause a shift in the odds for this market.