TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$723

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 12:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$222
$723
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T16:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T16:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 12:30PM and 12:45PM ET on October 22nd. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history showing how they’ve shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $712. The total volume for this market is $723, indicating overall interest. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for gold’s price movement, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially leading to signals that diverge from initial analyst expectations. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down within the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds you see are a real-time assessment of probability, driven by actual money at stake, rather than subjective opinions. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts indicates the level of uncertainty.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 12:30PM and 12:45PM ET on October 22nd. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. The exact price change will be verified against reliable financial data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or trade negotiations, can also create volatility. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy, or significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength, could all move this market. Keep an eye on financial news and global events leading up to Oct 22, 2026 for potential catalysts.