TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11PM-11:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$105

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11PM-11:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11PM-11:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 11:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11PM-11:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$105
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T03:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T03:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 11 PM and 11:15 PM ET on October 22nd. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how the market has traded over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, indicating how much activity is occurring in this market. Currently, the total volume is $105 and the overall volume is $105.

Currently, it’s important to note that analyst forecasts regarding short-term gold price movements are often varied and can differ significantly. This market provides a real-time aggregation of diverse perspectives, expressed through actual monetary stakes. While some analysts may predict an increase in gold prices due to factors like geopolitical instability or inflation, others might anticipate a decrease based on interest rate expectations. The odds displayed on Predict reflect the collective judgment of traders, offering a potentially more accurate signal than any single analyst’s prediction.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of gold futures contracts between 11 PM and 11:15 PM ET on October 22nd will determine whether the market settles as 'Gold Up' or 'Gold Down'. The direction will be determined by comparing the opening price at 11 PM ET to the closing price at 11:15 PM ET. The outcome will be based on publicly available data and verified against credible public sources.

Several factors could significantly impact the gold price movement market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could influence investor sentiment. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected policy changes from major economies, often drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any surprising announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy could trigger substantial price swings. Shifts in the US dollar’s strength or weakness will also play a role, as gold is typically priced in dollars.