TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11AM-11:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,315

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11AM-11:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11AM-11:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 11:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11AM-11:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$209
$1,315
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T15:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T15:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 11:00 AM and 11:15 AM ET on October 22nd. It displays the odds as they shift with trading activity, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $1,315, and the 24-hour volume, which is $1,309. The dashboard also provides a visual representation of price history, allowing users to observe how sentiment has evolved leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer opinions based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of informed opinions. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when unexpected events or sentiment shifts occur. Examining these differences can provide valuable insight into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis, offering a unique view beyond standard financial predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds continuously adapt to new information and changing sentiment, creating a real-time assessment of probability.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the gold price, as reported by a major financial index, moves up or down between 11:00 AM and 11:15 AM ET on October 22nd. The specific direction of the price change will determine which outcome is considered correct, and all outstanding contracts will be settled accordingly.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could influence investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements, often drive safe-haven demand for gold, impacting its price. Furthermore, any surprising news related to major gold-holding nations or significant shifts in currency exchange rates could also trigger substantial movement in this market.