TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,235

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 1:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$199
$1,235
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T05:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T05:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,225, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,235. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price movement of gold. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for gold’s price movement, this market represents the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders. This can lead to discrepancies, as the market incorporates a wider range of information and potential scenarios. It’s common to see the market odds diverge from the consensus view, especially when unexpected events or sentiment shifts occur. Examining these differences can be valuable for informed decision-making.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts reflects the probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe gold will rise, the higher the price of the 'up' contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold during the specified time window (October 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET). If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win; if it decreases or remains flat, the 'down' outcome will win. The final price movement will be verified against established financial data sources.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or trade tensions, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Central bank announcements regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate changes, are closely watched by gold traders. Even shifts in market sentiment, driven by news headlines or social media trends, could cause substantial movement in this market.