TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11:45PM-12AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$732

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11:45PM-12AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11:45PM-12AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 12:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11:45PM-12AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$732
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T03:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T03:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart visualizing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $725, and the total volume traded to date, which is $732. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the anticipated direction of the gold price. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves on this outcome.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing reports on the future of gold, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their mouth is. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate events before they are widely recognized by mainstream analysis, or to assign different probabilities to the same outcomes. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, and the market price reflects the aggregated assessment of all participants. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time probability assessment of the event’s outcome, driven entirely by user activity.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified 11:45 PM - 12:00 AM ET window on October 22nd. The direction of the price movement – whether it increases or decreases – will determine the winning outcome. The final price change will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency in determining the result of this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected conflicts or shifts in international relations, can also drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, changes in currency valuations, particularly the US dollar, and any surprising news regarding gold supply or demand could all contribute to price fluctuations and, consequently, shifts in this market’s odds.