TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

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2,984,028,936

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$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$2,441

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 11:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$211
$2,441
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T15:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T15:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified time window. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,402. The total volume traded to date is $2,441. This provides a clear picture of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different outcomes for this specific event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of opinions and potential scenarios. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can incorporate information and react to news more quickly than slower-moving analyst reports. This difference highlights the unique insights offered by a dynamic, real-time forecasting tool like Predict.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price effectively represents the probability of the ‘gold up’ outcome, with the ‘gold down’ outcome being the inverse. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the spot price of gold between 11:15 AM ET and 11:30 AM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 11:30 AM ET than at 11:15 AM ET, the ‘gold up’ outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘gold down’ outcome will prevail.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or major policy announcements from central banks, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or changes in investor risk appetite could influence trading activity. Any surprise news related to major gold-holding countries or large institutional investors could also create price movement.