TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$848

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 10:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$280
$848
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T14:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T14:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 10:30AM and 10:45AM ET on October 22nd. You'll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart illustrating how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $850. Total volume for this market is $848, reflecting overall trader interest. This information helps you gauge market sentiment and potential forecast accuracy.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. It's common to see discrepancies, especially in rapidly evolving situations. Examining these differences can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes and the factors influencing them.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 10:30AM and 10:45AM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 10:45AM ET than at 10:30AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global trade tensions or political instability, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, major news regarding central bank policies, particularly interest rate decisions, could trigger substantial price movements. Any surprise announcements or developments in these areas could lead to significant shifts in the odds within this market.