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416,910

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9AM-9:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,142

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9AM-9:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9AM-9:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 9:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9AM-9:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$186
$1,142
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T13:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T13:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 9:00 AM and 9:15 AM ET on October 21st. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,145. The total volume for this market is $1,142, indicating the overall interest and participation. This information allows traders to assess market sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer opinions based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a real-money view of the likely outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets are incentivized to be accurate, whereas analyst forecasts aren’t directly tied to financial consequences. This difference can provide a valuable signal for those seeking a more pragmatic assessment of potential gold price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability distribution. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to evolving expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:00 AM and 9:15 AM ET on October 21st. If the price increases during that period, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; if it decreases or remains unchanged, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger substantial price movements. Shifts in investor sentiment, influenced by news headlines or expert commentary, will also play a role in shaping the odds in this market.