TOTAL VOLUME:

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2,984,028,936

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$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

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4,340

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-10PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,506

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-10PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-10PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 10:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9:45PM-10PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$201
$1,506
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T01:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T01:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:45 PM and 10:00 PM ET on October 21st. You'll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,511. Total volume for this market is $1,506. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets, offering insights into market sentiment regarding short-term gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market shows a more balanced expectation, with significant volume on both sides. It's common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and expert opinions, as markets aggregate diverse viewpoints and react quickly to new information. This allows for a dynamic assessment of potential outcomes that may not be immediately captured in static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a mechanism to ensure fair price discovery, allowing traders to express their views and profit from accurate predictions. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts reflects the level of uncertainty surrounding the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:45 PM and 10:00 PM ET on October 21st. If the price increases during that period, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price decreases, the 'down' outcome will win. The exact price source will be determined by Predict’s standard procedures for commodity price verification.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions in major regions or surprise political developments, can also drive investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, any major announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger price movements. A sudden shift in investor sentiment, perhaps fueled by a prominent analyst's report, could also cause substantial changes in the odds.