TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

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MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,684

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 9:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$210
$1,684
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T01:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T01:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the implied probability of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:30 PM and 9:45 PM ET on October 21st. You'll find a dynamic display of current odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $1,673. The total volume for this market is $1,684, indicating the overall interest and trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While some analysts predict a continued upward trend due to geopolitical instability, this market shows a more nuanced expectation, with traders weighing various factors. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, potentially incorporating information not fully captured in standard financial models or public surveys. This can lead to odds that diverge from, or align with, expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of gold will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price reflects the collective judgment of participants, constantly adjusting as new information and opinions are incorporated. The current implied probabilities are shaped by the buying and selling pressure, with the market aggregating diverse perspectives into a single, quantifiable forecast. This creates a forward-looking assessment of the potential price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:30PM and 9:45PM ET on October 21. If the price is higher at 9:45PM ET than at 9:30PM ET, the 'up' outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will win. The precise price source used for verification will be determined by Predict’s resolution process.

Numerous factors could influence this market before it resolves around Oct 22, 2026. Any unexpected announcements regarding interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve would likely have a substantial impact, as gold is often seen as an alternative investment to interest-bearing assets. Major geopolitical events, such as escalating conflicts or unexpected political developments, could also drive demand for gold as a safe haven. Additionally, significant shifts in currency exchange rates, particularly the US dollar, and surprise economic data releases relating to inflation or economic growth could all move the market.