TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,885,293,300

410,482

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,119

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 9:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$89
$1,119
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T13:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T13:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 9:15 AM and 9:30 AM ET on October 21st. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and the total 24-hour volume traded, currently at $1,118. The total volume for this market is $1,119, reflecting overall trader interest. This information helps you understand where the crowd currently stands on the likely direction of gold's price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or qualitative outlooks, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the gold price movement. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as markets can incorporate information and react to news more quickly than traditional analysis. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional forecasting.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the gold price increasing, with higher prices suggesting a stronger belief in an upward movement. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 9:15 AM and 9:30 AM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 9:30 AM than at 9:15 AM, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, any significant announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could trigger price movements. Finally, major news related to gold mining production or global supply chain disruptions could also affect trader sentiment and shift the odds in this market.