TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8AM-8:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,258

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8AM-8:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8AM-8:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 8:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8AM-8:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$222
$1,258
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T12:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T12:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified time window. You'll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $1,256. The total volume for this market is $1,258. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how actively traders are participating in predicting the direction of the gold price. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how the market is evolving.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide price targets and recommendations, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially reacting faster than consensus analyst estimates. Comparing the implied probability of a price increase in this market to the percentage of analysts predicting a similar outcome can reveal interesting insights.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds closely align with the perceived probability of the outcome. The more traders believe gold will rise, the higher the price of 'up' contracts will climb, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:00 AM ET and 8:15 AM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 8:15 AM ET than at 8:00 AM ET, the 'up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global stability or trade tensions, can also drive investor sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Major news regarding central bank policies, particularly interest rate decisions, are likely to cause volatility. Even surprising statements from key financial figures could move the market, as traders react to perceived changes in economic outlook.