TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-9AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,336

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-9AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-9AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 9:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-9AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$211
$1,336
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T12:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T12:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 8:45AM and 9:00AM ET on October 21st. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,320. The total volume for this market is $1,336. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities based on the collective wisdom of the crowd.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on fundamental economic factors and technical analysis, this market incorporates a wider range of information and real-time sentiment. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly adapt to new information and unexpected events. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into the collective intelligence of traders versus expert opinions regarding the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:45AM and 9:00AM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 9:00AM ET than at 8:45AM ET, the ‘up’ outcome will be verified; otherwise, the ‘down’ outcome will be verified. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.

Several factors could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected policy changes from major central banks, can also drive volatility. Furthermore, major news related to gold demand, such as large purchases by central banks or shifts in investor sentiment, could influence trading activity. Any surprise announcements or developments in these areas could lead to substantial shifts in the odds within this market.