TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

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63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$637

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 8:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$220
$637
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T12:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T12:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price between 8:30AM and 8:45AM ET on October 21st. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, and can view the 24-hour trading volume to gauge recent market activity. Currently, the total volume for this market is $637, with $635 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a clear picture of where traders are placing their bets and how confidence is evolving.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer opinions based on economic indicators and geopolitical events, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their capital at risk. If a significant number of analysts predict gold will rise, but this market shows a stronger inclination towards a price decrease, it suggests traders perceive factors not fully captured by conventional analysis. It's a fascinating comparison of informed speculation versus incentivized prediction.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds reflect the aggregated sentiment of all participants actively trading in this market, rather than being determined by a fixed set of parameters or external valuation models.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 8:30 AM and 8:45 AM ET on October 21st, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. If the price is higher at 8:45 AM ET than at 8:30 AM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the ‘Down’ outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a trusted financial source.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or unexpected political developments, can also drive investment towards gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, major announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy could influence market sentiment. Any surprise news related to global economic growth or currency fluctuations could also cause substantial shifts in the odds for this market.