TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 7AM-7:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,038

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 7AM-7:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 7AM-7:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 7:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 7AM-7:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$144
$1,038
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T11:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T11:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays real-time odds reflecting trader sentiment about whether the price of gold will be higher or lower between 7:00 AM and 7:15 AM ET on October 21st. You can view the current implied probabilities, track the total volume traded—currently at $1,038—and see the 24-hour volume, which stands at $1,041. The dashboard also provides a price history chart illustrating how the market has fluctuated over time, giving you a visual representation of trader expectations.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts provide price targets and recommendations for gold, this market aggregates the predictions of a diverse group of individuals. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments. This difference can be valuable for understanding the broader sentiment surrounding gold's potential movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each possible result. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s assessment of the likelihood of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. Higher prices suggest greater confidence in one outcome over the other, driven by the actions of traders on Predict.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of gold between 7:00 AM and 7:15 AM ET on October 21st. If the price at that time is higher than the starting price, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; conversely, if it's lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in global tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve or other central banks could play a role. Any surprising news related to major gold-holding countries or significant shifts in currency valuations could also move this market.