TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 7:45PM-8PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$862

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 7:45PM-8PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 7:45PM-8PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 8:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 7:45PM-8PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$179
$862
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T23:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T23:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market displays the current implied probabilities for gold increasing or decreasing in value between 7:45PM and 8:00PM ET on October 21st. It also shows the trading volume, currently at $859 over the last 24 hours, and the total volume traded to date, which is $862. You can view a price history chart to see how the market has been pricing in different outcomes over time. This provides a real-time view of what traders believe about the short-term direction of gold.

Currently, analysts are divided on the short-term direction of gold, with some predicting a slight increase due to geopolitical uncertainty and others forecasting a decline based on recent economic data. This market reflects a different perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd to produce a probability-weighted forecast. Discrepancies between prediction market odds and analyst forecasts can highlight areas where traders believe analysts may be over- or underestimating certain factors influencing the gold price. It's a useful comparison point for anyone following the gold market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are essentially betting on their prediction, and the collective actions of these traders determine the market's overall forecast. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their views.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 7:45 PM ET and 8:00 PM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 8:00 PM ET than at 7:45 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment numbers, could shift investor sentiment towards gold. Geopolitical events, like escalating tensions or surprise political developments, often drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, any major news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could impact the gold price. Even a significant shift in the US dollar's strength could move this market, as gold is often priced in dollars.