TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 6PM-6:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$460

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 6PM-6:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 6PM-6:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 6:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 6PM-6:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$460
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T22:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T22:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $458, and the total volume traded to date, which is $460. This provides a snapshot of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price movement.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold's performance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as analysts may be influenced by biases or specific methodologies. This market provides a real-time, continuously updated view of what traders believe is most likely to happen, distinct from static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and is constantly adjusting as new information becomes available. Volume plays a role, but the primary driver is the willingness of traders to take either side of the bet.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:00 PM and 6:15 PM ET on October 21st. If the price increases during this period, the ‘Up’ outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price decreases, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or political instability, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched by traders. Any surprising news related to these areas could cause substantial shifts in the odds within this market.