TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$597

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 6:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$212
$597
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T22:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T22:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart illustrating how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume displayed, currently at $595, and the total volume traded to date, which is $597. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated price action of gold. The dashboard is updated frequently to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many financial analysts are issuing predictions about gold’s trajectory, this market represents a real-money view, where participants are putting capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as analysts may be influenced by biases or institutional constraints that don’t affect individual traders in this market. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 6:30 PM and 6:45 PM Eastern Time on October 21st. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up', while a decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down'. The final price movement will be sourced from established financial data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 21, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant movements in the US dollar or changes in investor risk appetite could trigger substantial shifts in the odds within this market. Monitoring these indicators will be crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations.