TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 5:45PM-6PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$39

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 5:45PM-6PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 5:45PM-6PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 6:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 5:45PM-6PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T21:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T21:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $39, and the total volume traded to date, which is $39. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving as we approach the market’s resolution date. The dashboard is designed to give you a quick understanding of market activity.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are offering predictions about gold’s price trajectory, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. It's common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the collective prediction, as traders weigh various factors and react to news in real-time. This difference can be insightful, potentially highlighting overlooked risks or opportunities not fully captured in standard financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price movements. The current implied probability of either outcome is reflected in the odds displayed on the dashboard, offering a clear view of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price during the specified time window – October 21st, 5:45 PM to 6:00 PM ET. A definitive source for the gold price during that period will be used to determine whether the price increased or decreased, and that result will determine the winning outcome in this market. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often have a substantial impact on gold prices. Geopolitical events, including unexpected political instability or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, significant movements in the US dollar or changes in investor risk appetite could influence trading activity in this market, leading to shifts in the odds.