TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

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2,984,028,936

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

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4,363

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5

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 4PM-4:15PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,085

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 4PM-4:15PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 4PM-4:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 4:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 4PM-4:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5
$1,085
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T20:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T20:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current implied probabilities of gold increasing or decreasing in value between 4PM and 4:15PM ET on October 21st. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $1,077. The total volume traded to date is $1,085. This provides a clear picture of how traders are assessing the likely direction of the gold price during that specific timeframe.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for gold price movements, this market aggregates the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders. This can lead to divergences, particularly when anticipating short-term fluctuations or reacting to unexpected news. It’s common to see this market pricing in probabilities that differ from the consensus view expressed in financial news and expert opinions, offering a unique signal about potential price action.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective expectations of the traders. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds you see represent the current market consensus, and are constantly updated as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. The market’s efficiency stems from the incentive for traders to accurately predict the outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4PM and 4:15PM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 4:15PM ET than at 4PM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will prevail. Conversely, if the price is lower, the ‘Down’ outcome will be considered the result. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often trigger gold price movements. Geopolitical events, like shifts in international tensions or major political announcements, can also drive investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, any surprising news related to central bank policies, particularly regarding interest rates, could impact the market. Even significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength could play a role in determining the direction of the gold price during the specified timeframe.