TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 4AM-4:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$93

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 4AM-4:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 4AM-4:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 4:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 4AM-4:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$93
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T08:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T08:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. It also displays the price history of the market, allowing you to see how predictions have shifted over time. You’ll find the total volume traded in this market, currently at $93, and the 24-hour volume, which is $94. This provides a snapshot of market activity and sentiment regarding the potential direction of the gold price.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might rely on economic indicators and geopolitical events to predict gold price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. This means the probabilities displayed here represent what traders believe will happen, potentially incorporating information not fully captured in standard analyses. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as market participants weigh factors differently and react to news in real-time.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and the odds adjust dynamically as new information becomes available and traders update their predictions. This creates a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:00 AM ET and 4:15 AM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 4:15 AM ET than at 4:00 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from central banks, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including escalating tensions or major political shifts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, major news related to gold mining production, central bank gold reserves, or currency fluctuations could all influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market.