TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Gold Up or Down - October 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$1,103

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 4:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$1,103
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T20:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T20:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,100, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,103. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price changes and how much activity is occurring in this specific market.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts for gold. While many analysts are predicting a continued upward trend due to inflation concerns, the odds here reflect a more nuanced view, incorporating a broader range of potential catalysts. It's important to note that prediction market odds represent what people are *willing to bet* on, which can differ from what they *believe* will happen, but often serves as a strong signal of overall market sentiment. This market provides a unique data point alongside conventional financial analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price essentially represents the probability that the market assigns to the outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood of a price increase.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 4:15 PM ET and 4:30 PM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 4:30 PM ET than at 4:15 PM ET, the 'Up' outcome will win; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 21, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, often trigger substantial movements in gold prices. Geopolitical events, like unexpected conflicts or shifts in international trade relations, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Even significant news regarding major gold-holding countries or large institutional investors could influence trading activity in this market and shift the odds considerably.