TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Gold Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$625

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 3:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T07:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T07:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in price during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the price history of the market itself. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $623, and the total volume traded to date, which is $625. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the anticipated gold price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts rely on economic indicators and historical trends, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and potential insights. Discrepancies can arise due to factors not fully captured in standard models, such as unforeseen geopolitical events or shifts in investor sentiment. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own assessment of the likely gold price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the gold price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, and the market adapts quickly to new information and changing perspectives. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated forecast of the gold price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 3:30 AM and 3:45 AM ET on October 21. An increase in price will result in a payout for those who predicted 'Up,' while a decrease will favor those who predicted 'Down.' The final price movement will be determined using publicly available financial data sources.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, often impact gold prices. Geopolitical events, including political instability or trade disputes, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, major announcements from central banks regarding monetary policy, like interest rate changes, could influence investor sentiment and the gold price. Any surprising news related to global economic conditions or risk appetite could lead to substantial shifts in this market.